March 3, 2026
Today’s Substack Live Intel Briefing was one of the most important conversations I’ve had on this platform. I sat down with two people who actually know what the hell they’re talking about — decorated military veterans and intelligence professionals — to break down the spiralling catastrophe of Trump’s war in Iran. And it’s worse than you think. Way worse. But as always, we’re here to inform you, not panic you, so let’s get into it.
The Guests
Ken Harbaugh is a former U.S. Navy pilot and mission commander, Yale Law School graduate, host of The Ken Harbaugh Show and the Ambies-nominated Burn the Boats podcast, and executive producer of the #1 Apple TV documentary Against All Enemies. He’s the former President of Team Rubicon, co-founded The Mission Continues, and his writing has appeared in The New York Times, The Atlantic, and Yale Journal of International Law. Ken is one of the most decorated and respected veteran voices in America, and he does not mince words.
Jacob Kaarsbo spent 15 years at the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE), where he served as Head of Middle East Analysis, Deputy Head of Counterterrorism, and Chief Analyst. He’s now a senior analyst at Think Tank EUROPA, specializing in European and transatlantic security policy, and has spent 25 years working on security issues in the world’s most dangerous hotspots. When Jacob talks about Iran and the Middle East, you shut up and listen.
The Middle East Is on Fire — And Iran Is Lighting Every Match
The conversation opened with the terrifying reality on the ground: Iran is not retreating. It’s escalating. Massively. Across the entire region.
We’re watching Iran activate operations not just within its own borders but across neighbouring countries — Qatar, UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia — setting fires everywhere it can, as fast as it can. And it’s working. Jacob laid out in devastating detail why Iran has been so devastatingly effective at crushing both U.S. and neighbouring country targets: they have been preparing for exactly this war for half a century.
Iran, largely because of decades of crippling sanctions, has become a world leader in asymmetric warfare. They don’t need to match America’s military dollar for dollar. They’ve built an entire war-fighting doctrine around exploiting vulnerabilities, using proxies, leveraging geography, and striking where conventional forces can’t easily respond. Jacob’s blunt assessment should keep every Pentagon official up at night:
This war hasn’t even started yet.
Trump’s DoD: Led by a Drunk Weekend Anchor
Ken Harbaugh didn’t hold back on the absolute catastrophe that is Trump’s Department of Defense. Pete Hegseth — a Fox News weekend anchor whose primary qualification for running the most powerful military on Earth appears to be his ability to hold a cocktail — is overseeing a Pentagon staffed with some of the least qualified individuals ever to hold positions of national security importance.
The lack of planning is not a bug. It’s a feature. This administration doesn’t plan because planning requires expertise, and expertise requires people who actually know things. Trump purged those people. What’s left is a skeleton crew of loyalists and ideologues who couldn’t find Iran on a map with both hands and a flashlight.
America Is Out of Ammunition
Here’s the part that should absolutely terrify you — and this is not hyperbole.
Trump has spent most of America’s weapons stockpiles already. In one calendar year. Six hundred and twenty-six bombings across 10 countries. Air guitar-style bombing campaigns that looked great on cable news but burned through interceptors, cruise missiles, and precision munitions at a rate that America’s defence industrial base simply cannot replenish fast enough.
Now, with a real war escalating against a real adversary that has been preparing for this moment for 50 years, Trump’s allies in the Gulf are literally begging for interceptors and missiles. The answer from Washington? We don’t have them.
One of Trump’s aircraft carriers had to retreat into the Indian Ocean yesterday because it couldn’t defend itself and needed to resupply. The problem? There are no supplies. Let that sink in. An American carrier group — the most powerful naval asset on Earth — had to run because the cupboard is bare.
Europe Just Got Nuclear: Denmark and 7 Countries Partner with France
And then came the bombshell we ended on: Denmark, along with Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, and Sweden, has formally entered into a nuclear deterrence partnership with France.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France will expand its nuclear arsenal and introduce “advanced deterrence” — a structured nuclear-security relationship with European partners that allows participating nations to host French strategic air forces and nuclear-capable aircraft.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen put it plainly: the military threat from Russia is increasing, and Europe needs to strengthen its own deterrence capability.
Jacob — who literally spent his career inside Danish Defence Intelligence — broke down what this means: Europe is done relying on the United States for its security. Full stop. When eight European nations sign up for a French nuclear umbrella in a single day, that’s not a diplomatic footnote. That’s a tectonic shift in the global order.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Military Is Going Full End Times
And just when you thought it couldn’t get more insane, reports emerged that elements of the U.S. military are telling soldiers to be “martyrs” for Jesus Christ and that this war will bring about the end times.
Read that again. The most powerful military on Earth, depleted of munitions, led by a Fox News host, waging an unplanned war against an adversary that’s been preparing for five decades — and the messaging to troops is apocalyptic religious fervour.
This isn’t a war strategy. It’s a death cult.
The Big Picture
Ken and Jacob both made clear: this isn’t about being anti-American. This is about the catastrophic danger of an incompetent, authoritarian regime dragging the world’s most powerful military into a conflict it hasn’t planned for, can’t sustain, and may not survive intact.
Iran is executing a textbook asymmetric warfare campaign. Europe is cutting the cord on American security guarantees. And the people running the Pentagon think Jesus is coming back to sort it all out.
We’re calming fears here at DeanBlundell.Substack.com, not stoking them. But calm doesn’t mean blind. Pay attention. Stay informed. And share this with everyone you know.
🔗 Follow Ken Harbaugh: The Ken Harbaugh Show on Substack | Burn the Boats Podcast
🔗 Follow Jacob Kaarsbo: Jacob Kaarsbo on Substack | Think Tank EUROPA
Thank you This Will Hold, Cheech Previti, Caro Henry, Stephanie Church, Pamela, and many others for tuning into my live video with The Ken Harbaugh Show and Jacob Kaarsbo! Join me for my next live video in the app.
